Tropical Storm Octave Forecast Advisory Number 4

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 01 2025

854 
WTPZ25 KNHC 010253
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152025
0300 UTC WED OCT 01 2025
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 114.4W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 114.4W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 114.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.6N 114.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 12.5N 115.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.0N 116.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.5N 117.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.9N 119.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.4N 120.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 15.0N 121.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 15.8N 121.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N 114.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA (CPHC)